Global Outlook for the world economies in 2024

The report reviewed 2023 and looked towards 2024. It said that 2023 was the year in which measures against inflation began to have an effect, and that taming inflation also meant slowing economies. It cited the International Monetary Fund as expecting a slowdown in Western developed countries, with Europe showing a minimal recovery and inflation moving slowly towards central bank targets. It noted that markets were expecting a soft landing, meaning a slowdown that avoids a recession, and discussed expectations for the timing of the first US Federal Reserve interest rate cut. The US reference corporate bond yield index stood at 5.48%.

The report discussed an analysis by Moody's of growth expectations by country in comparison with history, based on purchasing power parity. In that analysis, Japan, Italy and Germany had better than historical growth expectations among developed markets, China was expected to see a further slowdown, and India was described as taking the lead in Asian economic growth.

Moody's also classified economies by their phase of the economic cycle. Japan, India and Indonesia were in a late expansion phase, while the US, the UK and Europe were in a slowdown. The US had just entered that phase, while Europe was in an advanced slowdown. China was considered to be in a recession in cycle terms despite positive GDP growth. The report also reproduced Moody's assessment of the monetary policy stance and direction of each G-20 economy.

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