2025 Financial Markets Outlook

The report examined the themes and risks it identified for 2025, led by geopolitical tension and trade policy. It noted that, before taking office, the incoming US president had made statements about Greenland, the Panama Canal and Canada that drew formal responses from the governments concerned, and that trade negotiating tactics had been a feature of his previous term.

The report recorded that Canada, Panama and European leaders each reaffirmed national sovereignty. Panama pointed to the neutrality of the canal under international law and to the 1977 treaty that transferred control of the canal to Panama, while European leaders stated that borders were inviolable and warned against any move on Greenland, which the report described as an autonomous Danish territory. The report also noted that the war in Ukraine was entering its third year, with continued Western military aid and an ongoing Ukrainian operation in the Kursk region, and that the future course of the war remained uncertain.

A section of the report was devoted to the weight of US markets. As of 2023, US companies accounted for approximately 59% of global stock market value. In 2013, global equity market capitalisation was USD 54.4 trillion, of which US equities accounted for USD 18.0 trillion, or 33%. US nominal GDP was over USD 27 trillion in 2023, more than 25% of the global economy, compared with approximately USD 17.1 trillion in 2013, and its share of the global economy was described as broadly stable over the decade. The report noted that the growing prominence of US companies raised questions about valuations and increased exposure to economic and geopolitical headwinds.

The report also reviewed the economic outlook by region, drawing on International Monetary Fund growth projections for the G20 economies and including a table of those projections for 2025 to 2027. It discussed the factors bearing on growth in the US, the eurozone, China and India, including interest rates, fiscal policy and the war in Ukraine, and it considered the effect of the political backdrop on market volatility.

Important information: This snapshot summarises MWC Group's market commentary for the period shown and is provided for general information only. It is not investment, tax or legal advice, a personal recommendation, or an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any investment, and it does not take account of your personal circumstances. Views and figures reflect conditions at the date of publication and may since have changed. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. The value of investments and any income from them can fall as well as rise, and you may get back less than you invested. Exchange-rate movements can affect returns. Market data comes from third-party sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy cannot be guaranteed. Please seek personal advice before making any investment decision. Issued by Manentia Wealth Consulting Group Limited (C80087), licensed by the Malta Financial Services Authority.